Coronavirus cases are jumping across the world as nations reopen their economies and this raises the risk of a second wave which could slow down the current recovery in major markets. Global debt levels are already at astronomical levels but it seems safe to assume that a resurgence in cases will result in central banks pumping more liquidity into the markets.
OKEx CEO Jay Hao recently said that Bitcoin (BTC) rallied about 58% from $6,580 to $10,400 after the first stimulus bill was signed in late March. There are also expectations that the Trump Administration may announce a second $1 trillion stimulus package.
If this happens, Hao believes that a portion of funds from investors will re-enter Bitcoin as institutional investors “spread their risk across risk and haven assets.”
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Even if institutional investors park roughly 1% of their money in the top-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap, this could result in an inflow of about $480 billion. According to Messari researcher Ryan Watkins, this fresh influx could boost “Bitcoin’s market cap above $1 trillion, or over $50,000 per BTC.”
This suggests that the long-term prospects for Bitcoin are strong, hence, any weakness can present an opportunity to buy at lower levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) showed promise on June 22 but the rally fizzled out at $9,795.06. This suggests that a huge wall of sellers is defending the $10,000–$10,500 resistance zone. The price turned down sharply and plunged below the moving averages today.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The repeated failure of the bulls to break above the resistance zone could attract long liquidations from short-term traders. If the bears take advantage of this and sink the price below the trendline of the ascending triangle, a drop to $8,638.70 and below that to $8,130.58 is possible.
If the BTC/USD pair rebounds off $8,130.58, it could point to a few days of range-bound trading between $8130.58–$10,000. The view will turn bearish if the bears sink the pair below the critical support at $8,130.58.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the trendline of the triangle, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the price to $10,000 levels.
Ether (ETH) turned down from just under the overhead resistance of $253.556 today, which suggests that bears are defending this level aggressively. This could keep the biggest altcoin range-bound between $225.783 and $253.556 for a few days.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The flat moving averages and the relative strength index just above the 50 level also suggests a balance between supply and demand.
This advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they can sink the second-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap below $225.783–$218.331 support zone. If this zone cracks, a drop to $200 and below it to $176.112 is likely.
Conversely, if the ETH/USD pair rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average ($224), the bulls might make one more attempt to push the price above $253.556. If the price sustains above this level, the uptrend is likely to resume.
XRP has broken down from the support line of the symmetrical triangle. If the bears can sustain the price below the triangle, a new downtrend is likely.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The downsloping moving averages and the failure of the RSI to even reach 50 level suggests that bears have the upper hand. The pattern target of this breakdown is $0.124412.
However, it is unlikely to be a straight fall as the bulls will try to stall the decline at $0.16 and then at $0.14.
This bearish view will be invalidated if the fourth-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap reverses direction and rises above both moving averages. However, the possibility of such a move looks bleak.
Although Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose above the moving averages today, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The altcoin quickly turned around and dipped below the moving averages.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The bears will now try to sink the fifth-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap to $217.55. This level has been holding up well for the past several days, hence, the bulls are likely to defend it aggressively once again.
A bounce off $217.55 will keep the BCH/USD pair range-bound between $217.55–$255.46 for a few more days. Both moving averages are flattish and the RSI has been oscillating between 40 and 50, which also suggests a range-bound action but with a negative bias.
The rebound in Bitcoin SV (BSV) hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($180), which is a negative sign. The 20-day EMA is sloping down gradually and the RSI is in the negative territory, suggesting advantage to the bears.